An apparatus, system, and method are disclosed for preventing turbocharger overspeed in a combustion engine. The method includes determining a turbocharger error term as a difference between a nominal turbocharger maximum speed and a current turbocharger speed. The method further includes determining a turbocharger speed derivative with respect to time. The method includes calculating a turbocharger control response based on the turbocharger error term and the turbocharger speed derivative with respect to time. The turbocharger control response may be a modified turbocharger maximum speed calculated by determining a reference speed multiplier based on the turbocharger error term and the turbocharger speed derivative with respect to time, and multiplying the reference speed multiplier by the nominal turbocharger maximum speed. The method thereby smoothly anticipates turbocharger transient events, and prevents an overspeed condition of the turbocharger.