The present invention comprises a method for determining a set of fill conditions for packaged goods. More particularly the present invention comprises a method for modeling a preferred set of fill conditions for packaged goods considering relevant regulatory and cost constraints, including the steps of: obtaining a historical data set; determining a sampling manufacturing period; obtaining a variance model; selecting a variance estimation technique; and then determining a variance component set using the variance model, the estimation technique, and the historical data set. A first target can then be calculated by obtaining: a first constraint set; a first probability; a product data set; and optionally a first confidence level. The first target is then calculated utilizing the variance component set such that the likelihood under the first constraint set is at least as great as the first probability with the first confidence level, if employed. Subsequently a report related to the first target may be generated and/or displayed.