A system and method are provided for identifying underperformance in a pumping system used to produce a desired fluid. Various conditions are sensed during operation of the pumping system, and those sensed conditions are used to determine measured parameters that are provided with an associated confidence factor. The measured parameters in conjunction with the confidence factors are compared to a reference composite curve for the specific pumping system to determine whether actual performance has satisfied underperformance criteria or moved across a threshold into underperformance.