The present invention includes a method and system for creating a price-forecasting tool for a commodity. The method and system comprise providing price data and industry capacity utilization data related to the commodity, and establishing the price-forecasting tool based on a statistical relationship between the price data and the industry capacity utilization data. A method of doing business is disclosed comprising creating a price forecasting tool based on a statistical relationship between price data and industry capacity utilization data of the commodity, and utilizing the price forecasting tool to generate a plurality of scenario prices for the commodity for a plurality of forecast horizons. A computer program product is disclosed for creating a price forecasting tool comprising a computer usable medium having computer readable program means for causing a computer to perform the steps of providing price data and industry capacity utilization data related to the commodity, and establishing the price forecasting tool based on a statistical relationship between the price data and the industry capacity utilization data.