Methods and kits for diagnosing and prognosticating matrix metalloproteinase-1 related disease by detecting a single nucleotide polymorphism in the promoter of the gene are provided. Also provided are methods of identifying agents which inhibit binding of transcriptions factors to the Ets transcription factor binding site created by or resulting from this single nucleotide polymorphism and methods of using these agents to treat matrix metalloproteinase-1 related diseases.