A method and system is configured to characterize regions of an environment by the likelihoods of transition of a target from each region to another. The likelihoods of transition between regions is preferably used in combination with conventional object-tracking algorithms to determine the likelihood that a newly-appearing object in a scene corresponds to a recently-disappeared target. The likelihoods of transition may be predefined based on the particular environment, or may be determined based on prior appearances and disappearances in the environment, or a combination of both. The likelihoods of transition may also vary as a function of the time of day, day of the week, and other factors that may affect the likelihoods of transitions between regions in the particular surveillance environment.