A control system and method for determining optimal fluid injection pressure is based upon a model of a growing hydrofracture due to waterflood injection pressure. This model is used to develop a control system optimizing the injection pressure by using a prescribed injection goal coupled with the historical times, pressures, and volume of injected fluid at a single well. In this control method, the historical data is used to derive two major flow components: the transitional component, where cumulative injection volume is scaled as the square root of time, and a steady-state breakthrough component, which scales linearly with respect to time. These components provide diagnostic information and allow for the prevention of rapid fracture growth and associated massive water break through that is an important part of a successful waterflood, thereby extending the life of both injection and associated production wells in waterflood secondary oil recovery operations.