A yield expectation determination is dynamically provided during manufacturing of a lot of integrated circuits. In one embodiment, the determination includes initially establishing a yield expectation for a lot, which can be based on a process grade, and adjusting the yield expectation during manufacturing based on test data from the kerf of a wafer. In addition, the yield expectation can be adjusted based on inspection data from optical and SEM inspection tools during manufacturing. Correlation coefficient models that correlate kerf data and inspection data to a yield expectation adjustment are used to dynamically adjust the yield expectation, resulting in a more accurate yield projection during manufacturing. The correlation coefficient models and/or process grade estimates are updated based on actual yield from a previous lot, thus further improving yield expectation accuracy.