The invention provides a method to analyze an effect of a biological
insult such as exposure to ionizing radiation comprising (a) exposing one
or more groups of subjects to a biological insult of at least about an
LD.sub.10 to obtain one or more groups of exposed subjects; and (b)
measuring one, two, three or more surrogate markers in one or more of the
groups of exposed subjects, wherein one, two, three or more of the
surrogate markers correlate with death at a P.ltoreq.0.1.