A method for treating or preventing cardiovascular pathologies by administering a compound of the formula (I): ##STR00001## wherein Z is C.dbd.O or a covalent bond; Y is H or O(C.sub.1 C.sub.4)alkyl, R.sup.1 and R.sup.2 are individually (C.sub.1 C.sub.4)alkyl or together with N are a saturated heterocyclic group, R.sup.3 is ethyl or chloroethyl, R.sup.4 is H or together with R.sup.3 is --CH.sub.2--CH.sub.2-- or --S--, R.sup.5 is I, O(C.sub.1 C.sub.4)alkyl or H, and R.sup.6 is I, O(C.sub.1 C.sub.4)alkyl or H with the proviso that when R.sup.4, R.sup.5, and R.sup.6 are H, R.sup.3 is not ethyl; or a pharmaceutically acceptable salt thereof, effective to activate or stimulate production of TGF-beta to treat and/or prevent conditions such as atherosclerosis, thrombosis, myocardial infarction, and stroke is provided. Useful compounds include idoxifene and salts thereof. Further provided is a method for identifying a compound that is a TGF-beta activator or production stimulator is provided. Another embodiment of the invention is an assay or kit to determine TGF-beta in vitro. Also provided is a therapeutic method comprising inhibiting smooth muscle cell proliferation associated with procedural vascular trauma employing the administration of tamoxifen or structural analogs thereof, including compounds of formula (I).